Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science

ENGI 3423 Probability and Statistics

2010 Fall – Term 6 Mechanical Discipline only

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[Text & Evaluation scheme]	[Demonstration files]
[Index of Problem Set Questions]	[Index of Problem Set Solutions]
[Back to the 3423 Home Page]	[Gapped Lecture Notes]

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Course Outline (Summary)

Chapter in Notes	Chapter in Devore	Topic
2	1	Descriptive Statistics
3, 4, 5	2	Elementary Probability
6, 7	3	Discrete Probability Distributions
8	4	Continuous Probability Distributions
9	5	Discrete Joint Probability Distributions
9	6	Point Estimation
10	7	Confidence Intervals
11	8	Hypothesis Tests (single sample)
11	9	Inferences Based on Two Samples
12	12	Simple Linear Regression

Course Outline (all disciplines)

[Note:   this list of topics is subject to change as the term progresses.]

Week	Week	[Part 1 of 4]
#	Devore section	topics
1	Sep. 08-10	[Labour Day holiday:   Sep. 6 Mon.]
	---	Course Overview
	1	Descriptive Statistics
	1.2	Graphical methods
	Tutorial	Introduction to Minitab; Sessions 1 & 2 (Descriptive Statistics)
2	Sep. 13-17	[Complete Problem Set 1 by Mon. Sep. 20] [Submit Assignment 1 by Wed. Sep. 22 29 at 10:00]
	1.3	Measures of location
	1.4	Measures of variability
	2	Elementary Probability
	---	Decision trees, fair bet, odds, coherence
	2.1	Sample spaces
	Tutorial	Minitab Sessions 3 (Descriptive Statistics) and 4 (Probability Simulation using Macros)
3	Sep. 20-24	[Complete Problem Set 2 by Mon. Sep. 27]
	2.2	Events (Venn diagrams, union, intersection, etc.)
	2.3	Counting techniques (multiplication rule, permutations, combinations)
	Tutorial	Minitab Session 5 (Probability Simulation using Macros)
4	Sep. 27 -Oct. 1	[Complete Problem Set 3 by Mon. Oct. 04; Prepare for Term Test 1]
	2.4	Conditional probability and independence; Bayes’ theorem
	---	Update of prior probabilities using Bayes’ theorem
	2.5	Independence
	2	[Various examples from 2.1 - 2.8;   Review]
	Tutorial	[Review for Term Test 1]

Course Outline (all disciplines)

Week	Week	[Part 2 of 4]
#	Devore section	topics
5	Oct. 04-08
	3	Discrete Probability Distributions
	---	*** [TERM TEST 1] ***     (October 8 Fri.)
	3.1	Concept of a random quantity
	3.2	Discrete probability distributions (p.m.f., c.d.f.)
	3.3	Expected values of random quantities
	Tutorial	Complete decision tree example
6	Oct. 11-15	[Complete Problem Set 4 by Mon. Oct. 18] Thanksgiving Holiday & Mid Semester Break   Oct. 11-12] [Follow Monday schedule on Wednesday Oct. 13] [Follow Tuesday schedule on Friday Oct. 15]
	3.6	the Poisson distribution
	3.4	the binomial and multinomial distributions; use of tables
	3	[More examples]
7	Oct. 18-22	[Complete Problem Set 5 by Mon. Oct. 25]
	4	Continuous Probability Distributions
	4.1	Probability density functions
	4.4	[part]: The exponential distribution
	4.3	The normal distribution
	Tutorial	Minitab Session 6 (Probability Plots)
8	Oct. 25-29	[Review topics for Test 2]
	5	Discrete Joint Probability Distributions
	5.1	Joint probability distributions
	5.2	[part]:   Covariance
	5.3	Statistics and their distributions
	5.4	The distribution of a sample mean
	5.5	The distribution of a linear combination of random quantities, Central Limit Theorem; sample proportions; examples
	6	Point Estimation
	Tutorial	[Review for Term Test 2]

Course Outline (all disciplines)

Week	Week	[Part 3 of 4]
#	Devore section	topics
9	Nov. 01-05	[Complete Problem Set 6 by Mon. Nov. 08]
	---	*** [TERM TEST 2] ***     (November 03 Wed.)
	7	Confidence Intervals
	7.1	Basic properties of confidence intervals
	7.2	Large sample confidence intervals for a population mean
10	Nov. 08-12	[Remembrance Day, Nov. 11]
	7.3	Intervals based on a normal population distribution
	---	Bayesian methods of estimation
	8	Tests of Hypotheses Based on a Single Sample
	8.1	Statistical hypotheses and test procedures
11	Nov. 15-19	[Complete Problem Set 7 by Mon. Nov. 22]
	8.2	Tests about a population mean
	8.4	P- values
	Tutorial	Additional hypothesis test example
	9	Inferences Based on Two Samples
	9.1	z-tests and confidence intervals for the difference between two means
	9.2	The two sample t-test and confidence interval
	9.3	Analysis of paired data
	Tutorial	Minitab Session 7 (Two Sample Tests)
12	Nov. 22-26	[Complete Additional Exercises by Mon. Nov. 29]
	12	Simple Linear Regression and Correlation
	12.1	The simple linear regression model
	12.2	Estimating model parameters
	12.3	Inferences about the slope parameter
	12.5	Correlation

Course Outline (all disciplines)

Week	Week	[Part 4 of 4]
#	Devore section	topics
13	Nov. 29 -Dec. 3	[Complete past final examinations by Wed. Dec. 01]
	12	Simple Linear Regression and Correlation
	12.4	Prediction of future Y values
	---	[Review]
X
	T.B.A.	*** [Final Examination] ***     (date to be announced)